However, in recent months (especially in April 2017), a series of macroeconomic data have declined significantly, or less than expected, began to worry about China’s economic growth in the second half of this rolex replica, the risk of falling significantly. What is more important is that if there is a lack of correct judgment on the possible extent of the economic downturn and still insist on severe financial deleveraging and risk control policies, this may trigger three possible risks: First, the financing costs of the entity (especially small and medium- (Especially some commercial firms and rural firms) are facing the asset side, the debt side and the regulatory side of the surge in pressure, may face a series of domestic and foreign financial institutions, Bankruptcy liquidation risk; third is a variety of financial asset prices fall more than expected, and then lead to a series of new issues.
The analysis of this paper will focus on the inventory cycle. The analysis of this paper shows that all aspects of the evidence that support China’s short-term growth in the stock cycle has peaked in the future is about to fall; the legendary production cycle due to various reasons, in the short term is difficult to replica watches successfully open. In view of this, the Chinese economy in the second half of this year’s trend may be more than expected. GDP growth, PPI growth rate and industrial enterprises profit growth in the second half may be a significant decline. Taking into account the end of the nineteenth, to the second half, the idea of replica watches uk ​​growth may be re-pressure control. We believe that although the strong financial regulatory policy will remain for some time, but the edge is difficult to continue to strengthen. Taking into account the rise in corporate finance costs and the country into the country and other issues, the central bank in the second half may be from the current neutral policy trend to neutral, which means that both short-term money market interest rates or long-term bond market interest rates may be moderate Down. We believe that the top 10-year bond yields this year may be in the top of 3.6-3.7%, has now reached a new round of time to set interest rate debt window.



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